#47 - Two Types of Luck
How to get lucky
What’s the one attribute that all successful people have?
Work ethic? Discipline? Self-belief? Emotional intelligence?
These traits correlate with success, but not all successful people possess them all.
The one thing they all share?
Luck.
Don’t just take my word for it…
“I was very lucky to have had a lot of opportunities early on. I think most businesses get lucky.” - Jeff Bezos
“I was very lucky to be in the right place at the right time. If there had been no Lakeside [his school], there would have been no Microsoft.” - Bill Gates
“The lucky breaks can make a big difference, and it’s not just about hard work or brains, but timing and fortune.” - Sheryl Sandberg
Every successful person’s story includes an element of luck. Those with even a shred of self-awareness acknowledge it. Yes, even…
“There’s an element of luck in everything we do, but you need to work hard enough to create those lucky opportunities.” - Elon Musk
These incredibly successful people openly credit luck as part of their story. But what exactly is luck?
The idea of luck is a funny one. We all know what it feels like to be lucky or unlucky.
The first line of the Wikipedia entry on luck is that it is “the phenomenon and belief that defines the experience of improbable events, especially improbably positive or negative ones.”
Words like "phenomenon" and "improbable" suggest that luck is outside our control.
This would mean that, despite knowing that luck plays such an important role in the pursuit of our goals or intended outcomes, there’s nothing we can do about it. We just have to keep hoping we find our lucky break and take the chance when it presents itself.
I’ve come to think of luck slightly differently.
Yes, there is an element of luck that just happens to some people, and I seem to experience waves of good or bad luck for no apparent reason.
But that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything we can do about it.
This is where the two types of luck come in.
Two Types of Luck
We’ll call the two types of luck “Chance Luck” and “Earned Luck”.
Chance Luck
Chance luck is the luck that indeed falls outside of your control. Chance luck would include where or when you were born.
I was very lucky to be born in England in the early 1990s to a family who raised me with love and care. They sent me to a good school and kept me healthy. I was born into a society with great healthcare and plenty of opportunities for me to take my time to find my path and figure things out. I had freedom, choices, and a safety net.
If I had been born in a country or time without that freedom, or infrastructure, things could have turned out very differently, even if I made the same decisions.
Timing can also make a big difference.
The S&P 500 has recently soared to all-time highs. Anyone with a large amount invested is likely feeling good right now. But investors coming into their drawdown years in the early 1990s might have felt even better.
Over the 10 years from 1980-1989, the S&P averaged a return of 17.6% per year. Anyone piling into their pension and retiring in 1990 would have taken advantage of perfect timing.
Just as many people retired at the end of 2008. In their final 10 years of saving and investing their hard-earned money, they would have seen a negative return, approximately -3.8% per annum.
Two individuals behaving in the same way and investing the same amount over the same period would have ended up with very different outcomes. $10,000 a year invested between 1980-89 would have resulted in a nest egg of $271k. Over the same number of years ending in 2008, the amount would be $81k.
We might refer to this type of luck as random fortune or fate.
Not much we can do about where or when we were born.
Earned Luck
While we can't influence ‘Chance Luck’, there’s another type of luck we can cultivate. We’ll call it ‘Earned Luck’.
The Elon quote above introduces the idea of working hard enough to create lucky opportunities. In other words, the harder you work, the luckier you get.
Yes, of course, the harder you work, the more likely you will be ready to take advantage of opportunities presented to you.
I believe luck is preparation meeting opportunity. If you hadn't been prepared when the opportunity came along, you wouldn't have been lucky. - Oprah Winfrey
Hard work is the price of entry. But I think luck can come from working smarter, too.
One characterisation of luck is ‘being in the right place at the right time’.
Well, what if you could be in more places, more of the time? This would increase your likelihood of getting lucky, right?
Putting yourself in more situations where luck might find you increases your luck surface area.
Let’s bring the luck surface area to life with an analogy based on fishing.
Assume that two people are fishing in a lake, using nets. Neither fisherman is more skilled than the other. The number of fish that swim into each net is simply a result of luck.
Now, assume that one of the fishermen has a net that is 10x larger than the other.
Which individual do you think will catch more fish?
Now assume two identical actors with the same acting ability. Assume one goes to 10x more auditions than the other. Which actor is more likely to get their lucky break?
Assume two identically skilled writers, one who posts every week for a year, and the other who posts once a month. Which one is more likely to find their audience?
Assume two identically talented speakers get offered speaking gigs slightly out of their comfort zone. Only one says yes. Who is more likely to have someone hear them and invite them to speak on a topic of their choice?
It's more than possible to increase your luck surface area in ways that apply to you, whatever your idea of "getting lucky" is.
Securing a dream job? Increase the number of people you are connected to in the industry who know you're looking and competent.
Finding your dream home? Speak to multiple agents and set up alerts for homes that fit your criteria as soon as they come on the market.
Winning the lottery? Buy more tickets.
Yes, there are aspects of luck that just happen, whether you work for them or deserve them. Recognise these and count your blessings.
Then, control your controllables.
Earned luck is legit. If I can leave you with one thing, it’s this:
When choosing between two options, choose the one that increases your luck surface area or your chances of being lucky. The bigger target you are, the more likely you are to get hit.
And one final quote…
I've found that luck is quite predictable. If you want more luck, take more chances. Be more active. Show up more often. - Brian Tracy
The luckiest people aren’t those who wait—they’re the ones who make luck inevitable.
Go be lucky this week.
What I read this week…
If you can look past the who, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is a fascinating idea that should be watched closely by everyone, not just Americans.
Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk (who have been put in charge of this new effort to radically reduce waste in the US Government) wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal this week. It’s worth a read and made me sit up and take notice of the ideas, beyond the tribal mud-slinging of politics.
As someone who is a proponent of those working for an organisation being in the office as the default, this particular line made me “ooooffff”:
Requiring federal employees to come to the office five days a week would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome: If federal employees don’t want to show up, American taxpayers shouldn’t pay them for the Covid-era privilege of staying home.
What I watched this week…
In the lead-up to Black Friday, the new Netflix documentary Buy Now: The Shopping Conspiracy should be required viewing for all.
Go and watch it now, before you order that toaster you don’t need, just because it’s 75% off.
Thanks for reading. See you next week ✌🏻❤️
Missed opportunity to call this “How to get lucky” — but loved it all the same.