#40 - When Optimism Fails
Hope is not a strategy
If you were to ask me my worst nightmare, I think it would be being kidnapped in a foreign country. I can only imagine how helplessness, despair, and panic would consume me.
Season 2 of the investigative journalism podcast Serial told the story of Bowe Berghdal, an American an American Army soldier who was held captive for five years by the Taliban before eventually being charged with desertion.
The story of his capture, release and subsequent trial is thrilling to listen to but, the series has always stuck in my mind because of the images of being held captive by a foreign enemy for that length of time and the helplessness that must have been felt.
James Stockdale
Perhaps the most “famous” story of a prisoner who was captured and held hostage is that of James Stockdale, a US Naval Officer whose plane was shot down over Northern Vietnam in 1965.
After his plane was shot down, he ejected from his aircraft and fell into a small village, where he landed and broke his back. He was quickly surrounded and taken to the infamous ‘Hanoi Hilton’, where he was held for seven and a half years.
After an unfathomably difficult, unimaginably long period of imprisonment, Stockdale and his fellow Prisoners of War (PoWs) were released as part of the deal that ended the Vietnam War.
In certain circles, Stockdale’s story has been immortalised through the concept of the Stockdale Paradox, which was popularised in Jim Collins’ book, ‘Good to Great’.
As the highest-ranking officer in the prison, Stockdale took it upon himself to look out for his compatriots, attempting to maintain morale and discipline. This meant he observed many behaviours, constitutions and personalities. He noticed what worked and what didn’t.
Stockdale observed two types of prisoners. The ‘optimists’ and the ‘realists’.
Some prisoners were overly optimistic about their situation. They were sure it was only a matter of time before the US Military machine would come to their rescue, and they would be home by Christmas.
When Christmas came and went, so did their hope. When expectations were repeatedly crushed, they fell into despair. In a later interview, Stockdale was asked, “Who didn’t make it out?”
“Oh, that’s easy”, he said. “The optimists.”
The realists, on the other hand, were the ones who managed to hold firm, particularly those who managed realism while maintaining a long-term belief.
The Stockdale Paradox
This balance of realism and optimism has been termed the Stockdale Paradox.
According to the paradox, Stockdale held on to two seemingly contradictory beliefs. It was the ability to hold on to these two beliefs simultaneously that enabled Stockdale and others to endure such tortuous conditions for seven years.
Realism in the face of facts
Unwavering faith in eventual success
Stockdale believed in facing the harsh reality of his situation. It was no use hiding behind false ideas or unsupported hope that something or someone would come to his rescue.
Torture, abuse, solitary confinement. The situation was grim, but pretending otherwise wouldn’t change that.
At the same time, Stockdale maintained a firm belief that he and the US military effort would prevail in the end. Without this, what would be the point of suffering and fighting on?
Jim Collins’ book ‘Good to Great’ - where the Stockdale Paradox was first popularised - is not about surviving as a PoW. In fact, from Collins’ own summary, “this book addresses a single question, can a good company become a great company?”
If this idea can be applied to companies going through a rough patch, it can be useful for individuals too. I hope that none of us ever have to face being held captive, but I know for sure that each of us will face difficult times.
Productive changes can occur when you confront brutal facts.
Yes, this is shit. Yes, it hurts. Yes, I’m embarrassed.
Pretending otherwise or clinging on with blind faith that someone will come along and save you is not going to help.
Hope is not a strategy
Career setback? Denying the situation won’t help. Acknowledge the struggle and trust in your ability to land something better.
Business challenges? Business bleeding cash? Face the facts, cut costs, pivot - keep faith that you will prevail in the long run.
Health issues? Picked up an injury? Accept the reality of what lies ahead, make the necessary changes and know that you will recover over time.
I’ve always been confident that things will work out in the end, but avoiding brutal facts is something I’ve been pretty good at in the past. It’s the easy option, but it’s how issues build up. Being optimistic without focusing on the reality is a recipe for long-term frustration and disappointment.
“This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”
I think I can manage this when facing a rough few weeks at work.
Still not sure I’d last more than a few minutes as a PoW.
What I read this week
I’ve spent a lot of time recently wondering when the world would pivot ‘back’ to nuclear energy (which has perhaps the world’s biggest branding problem.)
It seems as though big tech is about to lead the charge, with some of the largest companies in the world turning to nuclear to support their ever increasing energy demands.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/5/24261405/google-microsoft-amazon-tech-data-center-nuclear-energy
What I watched this week
As a boy growing up in the 2000’s, I was obsessed with WWE Wrestling, as were most of my friends.
It wasn’t just the action in the ring that we were in love with, it was the characters and the soap opera like plots that we were hooked on. They seemed to be targeted at teenagers like me.
One of the main protagonists was Mr. McMahon, an ‘exaggerated’ persona of WWE’s real life founder and CEO, Vince McMahon.
Netflix have recently released a 5-part documentary series about Mr. McMahon (the man and the character) and I binged it in almost no time. For someone like me who loved WWE it was a chance to revisit my youth.
At the same time, it does paint a somewhat damning picture about the world of wrestling (and the reflection of popular culture that it was leaning in to) during the late 90’s and early 00’s.
If nothing else, it’s an entertaining - if slightly disturbing - spotlight on what was undoubtedly a huge part of many kids lives growing up.
Thanks for reading, see you next week ✌🏻❤️