I changed careers, I got married. And I wrote. Every week.

Tuesday’s Rule has become a constant in my life which has made me more disciplined, more thoughtful and (I think) more interesting. It’s certainly made me more interested.

I wrote to a consistently greater number of you every month, made new friends and triggered new conversations with old ones.

I tried to keep it original. I didn’t always succeed. More on that later.

While I’m reflecting, here are my three favourites from the year.

I love that all of my favourites came in the second half of the year. This must mean I’m getting better.

Having said that, I felt my writing getting a bit stale as the end of the year approached. Maybe that’s natural as we wind down. But, I didn’t like it. I don’t like stale.

So, in an attempt to keep things fresh, and to stay true to what I love doing and what aligns to my genuine interests, next year, Tuesday’s Rule will no longer be a weekly endeavour. (I may still write here from time to time, but it will be very sporadic).

Instead, I’m very excited to be launching my new weekly newsletter:

Second Acts: Tales of Turnaround & Transformation.

Starting next week, this newsletter will dive into the stories and lessons behind some of the most remarkable business comebacks and transformations. Businesses who have thrived, despite being faced with existential threats.

In the first month, we’ll be diving into Lego, Nintendo, Burberry, Delta and Domino’s Pizza. Each newsletter will be digestible, actionable and above all an interesting story of how businesses came back from the brink, and what we can all learn from how they did it.

As a TR subscriber, you’ll be automatically subscribed to Second Acts, so keep an eye out for the first edition coming your way soon. Thank you for your support.

In the meantime, a very very happy new year. I hope 2025 is your best yet.

~ Jack ✌🏻❤️

This will also be the final TR of the year, so I wanted to take this opportunity to say a genuine, heartfelt thank you to you for reading anything I’ve written this year.

Consistency is the secret sauce to success. It’s common wisdom.

To be successful, keep showing up!

It’s advice we’ve all heard and read.

Whilst it may have some truth to it, it may also be the most overused and oversimplified advice anyone can ever give.

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“Success isn’t all about greatness. It’s about consistency.”

“With consistency and reps, you’re going to achieve your goals.”

“If you’re new on Substack, you might suck at first, but just keep showing up. The subscribers will come!”

Hey, this guy has drunk a bottle of whisky every day for seven years, let’s celebrate and congratulate him on his consistency!

Said no one, ever.

Consistency is important, but only if you consistently do the right things.

I feel qualified to talk about this because I’ve seen consistency work and not work, and I’ve seen examples of it falling somewhere between the two. 

We should ask ourselves: does success result from consistency, or were successful people given enough green lights along the way to make keeping going the obvious answer?

In other words, is consistency only helpful for those already talented and on the right path?

Yes and no.

Consistency works when it creates a virtuous feedback loop. It doesn’t when it’s a blind continuation of a strategy that you have no evidence to be working - this is consistency for the sake of consistency. A trap.

We need to be consistent. But for the right reasons.

The Virtuous Cycle of Consistency

Let’s break down this consistency feedback loop that enables us to ensure that consistency is for the right reasons.

Here’s how I think about it:

1. Consistent Effort

2. Feedback

3. Improvement

4. Recognition

5. Enjoyment

6. More Consistency

Let’s break that down a little further.

1. Consistent Effort - consistency has to start somewhere and it has to start with regularly showing up and putting effort into a goal. This is where many definitions of consistency stop, but it should be the beginning.

2. Feedback - if you put in consistent effort, you will get feedback. It is great if it is from others, even better if those others are constructive and wise. But often, the feedback won’t come from others. Especially if you are starting something small from scratch. The truth is many people won’t notice. Or care. In this case, the feedback has to come from within. Are you enjoying yourself? Do you feel like you are getting better? Can you see yourself doing this for 10 more years?

3. Improvement - that feedback - wherever it comes from - is only helpful if you implement it. Use the feedback to refine, tweak, implement. We’re now getting into the value of consistency and highlighting the importance of a growth mindset.

4. Recognition - if you are truly improving, you will start to see progress. Again, great if this recognition comes from others, but even at this stage, it might not. I’m recognising today that 50 weeks of posting in a row is good going. I’m proud of that, and that is recognition enough.

5. Enjoyment - as you see results and feel recognised, the process should become increasingly enjoyable and fulfilling. This positive assertion leads to…

6. Reinforcement of Consistency - which brings us back to the start.

If your idea of consistency - and any advice given bout consistency - stops at “just show up”, it falls short. At worst, it’s worthless.

So yes, consistency is important, but only if it leads to a virtuous cycle of consistency—a happy loop of growth, recognition, and fulfilment. 

The next time you think about continuing something just for consistency’s sake, question if that consistency is driving you forward or if you’re just spinning your wheels.

That’s exactly what I’m going to reflect on over the holidays. I’m very proud of the consistency I’ve been able to generate, but consistency without reflection is just repetition, and that’s not what I’m aiming for.

What I read this week

Like many, I had my mind blown by the news that Google has created a quantum computing chip that is capable of calculating equations in 5 minutes that would have taken the world’s most powerful supercomputer 10^25 years to calculate. (More than the estimated age of the universe).

I spent a while reading Sundar Pichai's (CEO of Google) tweet and the replies, pretending that I knew what any of them meant :).. but when Elon Musk replies by simply saying “Wow”, it’s probably worth a look.

https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/1866167429367468422

What I watched this week

My wife convinced me to watch A Muppets Christmas Carol and I’ll be taking no questions on the matter.

Thanks for reading, see you when I do ✌🏻❤️

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🤔 Anything that doesn’t exist after scrutiny, isn’t real.

This is a reminder to meditate more. More specifically, to lean into things I'm worried about or overthink rather than running away from them. So much of what fills my mind is playing out future scenarios and questioning where things will lead. Sitting with these and discerning what's real is hard but worthwhile.

🤾🏻 It is easier to act your way into a new way of thinking than to think into a new way of acting.

To change your situation, change your environment. Thinking harder isn't always the answer, and getting out of my head and into my body has unlocked great gains for me this year.

🚀 General ambition will give you anxiety. Specific ambition will give you direction.

I've always been ambitious, and occasionally, this has only led to frustration. If you do not know what you want, you're unlikely to get it. Zeroing in on specific targets, aligned to your broader goals is a sure way of making progress.

🧹 To clean up your city, first sweep your doorstep.

I love a moan about things that I don’t like. This is a reminder to “control my controllables". If I’m not happy about the way things are going, wherever that is, the only sure way of making improvements is by tackling and controlling what’s in front of me.

🚘 Life is like driving at night with the headlights on. You can only see a short distance, but you can do the whole journey that way.

Nothing is certain and we have no idea what is coming around the corner. Regardless of how prepared and in control I am, that fact will never change. That’s just fine. Keep going and react to what lies on the road ahead.

What I watched this week

My latest addiction is watching videos of amazing homes. Here’s my current favourite. Jimmy’s wine cellar is goals.

What I read this week

A clue about where I’m planning on taking my writing next year…

https://hbr.org/2019/09/the-top-20-business-transformations-of-the-last-decade

Thanks for reading, see you next week ✌🏻❤️

Hope you enjoy it!

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If you'd asked me aged 16 almost any question about my future, my default answer would have been "I don't know".

As I left school, I faced the obvious question - what did I want to do?

I didn't know.

If I'm being honest, even if you ask me now, the answer will often be "I don't know".

In the past, I would have been ashamed of that answer. Sometimes, it was a default response to a question I didn't want to answer, but it was often the truth. I didn't know.

Even if that was the case and I was telling the truth, sometimes I felt pressured to make the right choices. There was pressure to figure out what I enjoyed and wanted to do.

It doesn't matter what stage you are in life; you will always feel as though you should have more figured out than you do. But there is a lot I still don't know. As far as I can tell, that never changes.

There's a bit of a stigma about saying I don't know, and it's being removed from many people's vocabulary. Politicians are often asked questions that they quite clearly have no answer to. But, instead of the embarrassment of admitting that they don't know, they make up answers or try to avoid the question by answering an entirely different question.

But today, I want to champion those three words— '“I don't know.” Used correctly, they can be among the most powerful and exhilarating words you'll ever say.

When we admit 'I don't know,' we're not confessing weakness; we're opening a door. Behind that door lies the vast landscape of possibility, learning, and growth.

In the image above (credit Tim Urban), the black lines to the left represent life paths that we could have taken but are now closed. Different schools you could have gone to, relationships or friendships you could have prioritised. The green lines and forward-looking ones represent the life paths open to you.

We worry (I certainly do as someone in my early 30s) about the black lines. What if I'd done this or taken that decision? What might have happened? Of course, the answer is, I'll never know.

We need to remember that everything to the right is all in our hands. There is an immeasurable number of things that can happen in our lives. When we recognise that and are excited and optimistic about that fact, take specific actions to harness that positivity; that's where the fun can begin.

This is the first real example of why not knowing can be exciting.

We have no idea what the future might look like, and all these different paths are open to us. Being excited and optimistic about the future is a big unlock and differentiator to have versus someone who is more pessimistic about the future.

Decisions

Decisions are at the heart of every path we take. If you're anything like me, you'll make mistakes. You'll occasionally make the right call for the completely wrong reason. But that's not the point. The point is to be active in your process.

Life has a way of pulling us in different directions. You'll find currents of influence everywhere – from peers, family, and society. They're not always wrong and typically well-intended, but they shouldn't be the only navigators of your journey.

Consider university, travelling, or any life path. It's not about the choice itself but the intent behind choosing it. You should be the driving force. Because if you're not, you might look back and wonder how you ended up somewhere you never consciously aimed for.

During lockdown, we had more time for reflection. I recognised that parts of my past were more about going with the flow than making deliberate choices. And while it led me somewhere decent, I honestly spend a lot of time thinking about those black lines, and I think that's because I wasn't active enough at some of those decision points.

So, stay active in your decisions. Making them gives you a sense of agency. And when you're engaged in charting your course, you're better equipped to pivot if things don't align with your vision.

Take a moment to think: What's one 'black line' you often think about? What's a 'green line' you're excited to explore?

Be Lucky

One guiding principle that I now use when making decisions is to be lucky.

How can you possibly make yourself lucky, you ask? Maybe you can't, but what you can do is make decisions that make it more likely that you will be lucky.

This is the concept of the luck surface area. Your luck surface area is the likelihood of something lucky happening to you. Certain decisions increase your luck surface area, and certain decisions reduce it.

For example, if you are a good writer, you are way more likely to get "lucky" if you publish a piece of writing on the internet versus leaving it in your notebook for no one to see. You are way more likely to get lucky if you embrace saying yes to opportunities and trying lots of new things than staying in your lane and keeping your head under the parapet.

How do these two things relate to saying, “I don't know?”

We agree that the future is uncertain. We don't know what's going to happen, so proactively making decisions and trying new things out - whilst making those decisions that give ourselves the highest chance of being lucky - is a way to improve the likelihood of those uncertain outcomes working out in your favour.

With these principles in mind, this is where the phrase "I don't know" can start to become exciting, especially when you give yourself the greatest likelihood of the outcome being great.

Curiosity

Whilst our decisions carve the path we tread, it is curiosity that lights the way.

I've been privileged to interview lots of graduates for graduate schemes - first jobs from uni or school. The one thing I always look out for is signs that this person is curious.

For a graduate or any young person coming into a new job or a new scenario, there is no expectation that this person should know how to do the job.

I look for curiosity because those who are curious want to learn and understand things and are likely to dive into things head first to figure them out.

How do you become curious? Isn't it something you either are or not? One piece of practical advice other than being curious about everything, which might be difficult, is to look out for things that pique your interest. When you're doing something and something else catches your attention, train yourself to take note of these things because they may be what you are truly curious and passionate about.

Asking questions

The image above is pretty straightforward.

If you realise you don't know something and shrug your shoulders, that's that; the possibilities are limited.

The possibilities are significantly greater if you realise you don't know something and follow up with questions and curiosity. Who knows what you'll find out or what might come of it?

Questions unlock doors, and this isn't limited to whether they're big existential questions that drive humanity forward or questions we ask ourselves. When you're young and making your way in your career, good questions are just as crucial as having answers.

The video game map

Imagine diving into a new video game. Initially, you can only access a small portion of the game's map; most of it is greyed out, marking unexplored territories that present themselves as you explore. It’s tempting and exciting, promising new adventures.

Life, especially in our younger years, mirrors this concept. What we know and have experienced are the "unlocked" areas. Yet, there's a vast uncharted space – filled with places to see and new characters to meet. Just like in the video game, you'll have challenges to overcome.

It's natural to feel apprehension about these unknowns. But remember, every seasoned gamer once started with uncertainty. It's about exploration and the thrill of discovering the unfamiliar.

So, in life's grand game, embrace the 'I don't know' territories. They're the stages where unforgettable adventures await. Without question, they can be a little daunting, but with curiosity and good questions, you're armed to take on whatever comes your way.

Stories

I'll end with a quote from podcaster Chris Williamson.

"We do not know the things that will happen in the future. We don't even really, truly know ourselves. We don't have a crystal ball to show us what's happening in the outside world or within our bodies. Given the fact that we have to tell ourselves some form of story. Why not pick a story that is going to be beneficial to you?"

What does he mean by story?

There is so much we don't know. In fact, anything that relates to the future is a guess with no absolute certainty. Therefore, any ideas that we have about the future are made up.

I have a lot of hope for the future, both on a personal level and more broadly. Still, because I can't possibly know, that is a story I'm telling myself about the future.

So, because we must have a story about the future – why not pick one that will benefit you?

What I read this week

The Lost Art of Running: A Journey to Rediscover the Forgotten Essence of Human Movement is, despite my love of running, the first book I’ve ever read about it.

It made me question my technique, and excited for the improvements I now think are possible.

To share one takeaway which might give you an idea of the focus of the book, Shane’s single biggest piece of advice to improve your running? Buy (and use) a standup desk.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Lost-Art-Running-Shane-Benzie/dp/1472968085

What I watched this week

Prof G at his best.

Thanks for reading, see you next week ✌🏻❤️

Work ethic? Discipline? Self-belief? Emotional intelligence?

These traits correlate with success, but not all successful people possess them all.

The one thing they all share?

Luck.

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Don’t just take my word for it…

Every successful person’s story includes an element of luck. Those with even a shred of self-awareness acknowledge it. Yes, even…

These incredibly successful people openly credit luck as part of their story. But what exactly is luck?

The idea of luck is a funny one. We all know what it feels like to be lucky or unlucky. 

The first line of the Wikipedia entry on luck is that it is “the phenomenon and belief that defines the experience of improbable events, especially improbably positive or negative ones.”

Words like "phenomenon" and "improbable" suggest that luck is outside our control.

This would mean that, despite knowing that luck plays such an important role in the pursuit of our goals or intended outcomes, there’s nothing we can do about it. We just have to keep hoping we find our lucky break and take the chance when it presents itself.

I’ve come to think of luck slightly differently.

Yes, there is an element of luck that just happens to some people, and I seem to experience waves of good or bad luck for no apparent reason.

But that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything we can do about it.

This is where the two types of luck come in.

Two Types of Luck

We’ll call the two types of luck “Chance Luck” and “Earned Luck”.

Chance Luck

Chance luck is the luck that indeed falls outside of your control. Chance luck would include where or when you were born.

I was very lucky to be born in England in the early 1990s to a family who raised me with love and care. They sent me to a good school and kept me healthy. I was born into a society with great healthcare and plenty of opportunities for me to take my time to find my path and figure things out. I had freedom, choices, and a safety net.

If I had been born in a country or time without that freedom, or infrastructure, things could have turned out very differently, even if I made the same decisions.

Timing can also make a big difference.

The S&P 500 has recently soared to all-time highs. Anyone with a large amount invested is likely feeling good right now. But investors coming into their drawdown years in the early 1990s might have felt even better. 

Over the 10 years from 1980-1989, the S&P averaged a return of 17.6% per year. Anyone piling into their pension and retiring in 1990 would have taken advantage of perfect timing.

Just as many people retired at the end of 2008. In their final 10 years of saving and investing their hard-earned money, they would have seen a negative return, approximately -3.8% per annum.

Two individuals behaving in the same way and investing the same amount over the same period would have ended up with very different outcomes. $10,000 a year invested between 1980-89 would have resulted in a nest egg of $271k. Over the same number of years ending in 2008, the amount would be $81k. 

We might refer to this type of luck as random fortune or fate.

Not much we can do about where or when we were born.

Earned Luck

While we can't influence ‘Chance Luck’, there’s another type of luck we can cultivate. We’ll call it ‘Earned Luck’.

The Elon quote above introduces the idea of working hard enough to create lucky opportunities. In other words, the harder you work, the luckier you get.

Yes, of course, the harder you work, the more likely you will be ready to take advantage of opportunities presented to you.

Hard work is the price of entry. But I think luck can come from working smarter, too.

One characterisation of luck is ‘being in the right place at the right time’.

Well, what if you could be in more places, more of the time? This would increase your likelihood of getting lucky, right?

Putting yourself in more situations where luck might find you increases your luck surface area.

Let’s bring the luck surface area to life with an analogy based on fishing.

Assume that two people are fishing in a lake, using nets. Neither fisherman is more skilled than the other. The number of fish that swim into each net is simply a result of luck.

Now, assume that one of the fishermen has a net that is 10x larger than the other.

Which individual do you think will catch more fish?

• Now assume two identical actors with the same acting ability. Assume one goes to 10x more auditions than the other. Which actor is more likely to get their lucky break?

• Assume two identically skilled writers, one who posts every week for a year, and the other who posts once a month. Which one is more likely to find their audience?

• Assume two identically talented speakers get offered speaking gigs slightly out of their comfort zone. Only one says yes. Who is more likely to have someone hear them and invite them to speak on a topic of their choice?

It's more than possible to increase your luck surface area in ways that apply to you, whatever your idea of "getting lucky" is.

Securing a dream job? Increase the number of people you are connected to in the industry who know you're looking and competent.

Finding your dream home? Speak to multiple agents and set up alerts for homes that fit your criteria as soon as they come on the market.

Winning the lottery? Buy more tickets.

Yes, there are aspects of luck that just happen, whether you work for them or deserve them. Recognise these and count your blessings. 

Then, control your controllables.

Earned luck is legit. If I can leave you with one thing, it’s this:

And one final quote…

I've found that luck is quite predictable. If you want more luck, take more chances. Be more active. Show up more often. - Brian Tracy

The luckiest people aren’t those who wait—they’re the ones who make luck inevitable.

Go be lucky this week.

What I read this week…

If you can look past the who, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is a fascinating idea that should be watched closely by everyone, not just Americans.

Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk (who have been put in charge of this new effort to radically reduce waste in the US Government) wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal this week. It’s worth a read and made me sit up and take notice of the ideas, beyond the tribal mud-slinging of politics.

As someone who is a proponent of those working for an organisation being in the office as the default, this particular line made me “ooooffff”:

Requiring federal employees to come to the office five days a week would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome: If federal employees don’t want to show up, American taxpayers shouldn’t pay them for the Covid-era privilege of staying home.

What I watched this week…

In the lead-up to Black Friday, the new Netflix documentary Buy Now: The Shopping Conspiracy should be required viewing for all.

Go and watch it now, before you order that toaster you don’t need, just because it’s 75% off.

Thanks for reading. See you next week ✌🏻❤️

It’s a brand you look at and instinctively know it has stayed true to itself throughout its history.

A 2024 Harley still roars with the same soul as its ancestors—it’s riders reaching up to it’s massive handlebars cutting through the wind, chrome gleaming, the engine's deep, unmistakable rumble typically heard before the bike is seen.

But in the early 1980s, the business was a misstep away from becoming another, forgotten American manufacturing casualty. Today it faces challenges of a new kind.

The business's story is one of multiple transformations. From the challenge of competition in the 1970s to the rise of sustainability-conscious consumers in the 21st century, Harley-Davidson has had to fight to stay profitable and relevant. 

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The History

The first Harley-Davidson was built in Milwaukee in 1903 by William Harley and Walter Davidson, but it wasn't until WW2 that the bikes started to hit the public eye. During the war effort, Harley-Davidson built around 60,000 bikes for the US Army, but it was after the war that things started to take off. 

In the years between 1945 and 1970, post-war America was booming and confident, and it valued one thing above all others: freedom. For many, a Harley-Davidson motorcycle was a perfect symbol of that freedom.

A Harley-Davidson wasn't just transportation—it was a declaration of independence. Hollywood amplified this image. Films like Easy Rider and The Wild One transformed them from mere vehicles into cultural symbols of rebellion.

Sales of motorcycles in the US went from 98,000 in 1945 to 2.8m in 1970. In 1969, Harley-Davidson had a whopping 80% share of that market.

However, they were about to face their first significant challenge, and 10 years later, that share had plummeted to 20%, and would continue to fall.

In 1965, a heavy industry conglomerate, AMF, had acquired the company.

While AMF’s investment was welcomed and primed to take Harley-Davidson to the next level, management decisions soon led to major problems that almost drove (rode) Harley-Davidson to the brink of collapse.

Under AMF’s control, there was a strong push to increase production to meet growing market demand. At the same time, AMF made production shortcuts and rushed processes to cut costs. This focus on quantity over quality led to a decline in reliability, and the bikes started to get a reputation for being prone to mechanical failures. 

The company’s new emphasis on mass production under AMF clashed with Harley’s reputation for craftsmanship and American pride, starting to erode the brand.

At the same time, the company was faced with a new challenge from the East. The popularity of Japanese motorcycles in the 1970s was rapidly eating into Harley-Davidson’s market share. Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki, and Kawasaki offered motorcycles that were cheaper, more reliable, and more efficient than the US offering. The superior technology, smoother engines, and increased reliability started to appeal to a wider audience. 

Harley-Davidson’s collapse in market share followed as it struggled to compete with the modern designs and, particularly, the efficient production methods of its Japanese counterparts.

Transformation #1 - Back to Basics

In 1981, things weren’t looking good, but a group of executives managed to buy the company back from AMF through a leveraged buyout. 

Through the 1980s, Harley-Davidson—under the new leadership—went back to basics. They did this by returning to a focus on quality and product differentiation and a shift in marketing, launching campaigns that emphasised the lifestyle aspect of the brand. 

For the leadership team, going back to basics meant simple three things:

1. Providing value in products and services

2. Helping dealers get and keep customers 

3. Wanting people to buy motorcycles and use them

Doesn’t get more basic than that.

The recovery was slow but sure. Market share of 13% in 1983 ticked up to 19% in 1986. 

But the first fundamental transformation happened in the late 80s and through the 90s, under the leadership of Rich Teerlink. By 2002, market share had roared back to 47%.

During the 1980s, the turnaround relied on top-down decision-making to navigate the crisis. Under Teerlink, the company shifted from a traditional command-and-control management style to a more inclusive, bottom-up approach. Employee awareness and participation became big things and remain that way for Harley-Davidson today. 

Here is what Teerlink said about employee awareness in a 2003 interview:

Employees had to be aware of what the company was trying to do, and ultimately, they could be a part of that. The organisation should be able to answer four questions for the employee: How should we behave? What’s important? Who do we serve? How do we measure success? We used those four questions as the umbrella for our business because the first one addresses values, the second issues, the third stakeholders, and the fourth is about vision.

Basics. 

This internal transformation of approach is credited with revitalising the company’s fortunes up to the mid-2000s. There were no dramatic changes in direction, just a return to basics, a deep look within and a return to focusing on building quality products.

Here are some more insightful quotes from that 2003 interview with Teerlink, emphasising the subtle nature of the changes they instilled.

The biggest challenge was reality.

The challenge was recognising we couldn’t change overnight.

We could not get the perfection we wanted, but we could certainly improve.

This focus on improvement, not perfection was what got Harley back on track.

Transformation #2 - New Normal

It isn't just Harley-Davidson that has been faced with numerous, unique challenges from 2008 to today. From the financial crisis, a complete re-draw of global politics, climate change and a global pandemic, there isn't a business out there that hasn't had to adapt and change.

Each of these crises hit Harley-Davidson hard.

The financial crisis cratered demand. The re-draw of politics led to a Trump presidency, whose tariffs whacked Harley's supply chain and exports. The global pandemic did both of these things at once. Climate change has led to a new wave of sustainability-conscious consumers looking at a Harley-Davidson bike and seeing nothing more than a loud, dirty pollution machine. 

Current CEO Jochen Zeitz (the company's first non-American CEO) joined the company in March 2020. Having turned Puma around from a languishing shoe company to a global powerhouse after being made CEO aged 29, Zeitz could have done anything. He took on the challenge to improve the falling fortunes of an iconic brand that "was not doing very well".

He faces one of the biggest questions any business leader could face.

How do you preserve the authenticity of an iconic brand while simultaneously reinventing it?

In the early 2020s, Harley-Davidson faces competing risks: the risk of innovating versus the risk of not innovating.

The risks of not innovating are obvious. The average age of a rider of one of these bikes is getting older, and Harley-Davidsons have never been as appealing for Millenials as they were for baby boomers. This is an existential dilemma: How do you keep the fire burning for a new generation without extinguishing the passion of the old guard?

This is the risk of innovation. Moving away from what made the core customers fall in love with the brand risks leaving people behind. Reading into forums and various commentaries, you can see that these whispers are building as Zeitz seeks to change the company.

Ultimately, Zeitz believes that no brand or person can stand still. 

Harley's newest leadership team seeks to make an American icon into a global one. Zeitz has made it clear he wants to bring Harley-Davidson into the future, with a necessity to change and adapt. He refers to doing so with a "great legacy to build the future on." He says:

Harley-Davidson is about the look, sound, and feel. We won't compromise on that, but we will evolve it. 

Zeitz is currently trying to transform Harley-Davidson with a delicate balancing act: keeping an eye on the past while bringing the brand into the future. 

They continue to build their unmistakable machines while leaving unprofitable markets. They are seeking to build their apparel business, giving them breadth but building on the brand identity they've built up rather than moving away from it. Perhaps most interestingly, they've recently launched a range of electric bikes.

These machines look and sound incredible. They can reach 100kph in 3 seconds and have 140 miles of range. But they aren't Harley-Davidsons—they aren't even called Harley-Davidsons. A sub-brand has been created called LiveWire. 

Harley-Davidson is moving into the future, while doing everything not to water down the brand and everything associated with it. 

Over the decades, the company has navigated numerous challenges - competition from new entrants, financial crises and a changing world, including the rise of sustainability expectations.

There are some interesting lessons one can take from the history and multiple transformation journeys of Harley Davidson. Here are my top three:

• Avoid complacency at all costs: Even when you're at your peak—commanding 80% of the market—external factors can quickly change your position. The moment you think you're untouchable is precisely when you become vulnerable.

• Authenticity over everything: In times of uncertainty, return to your base identity. When times got tough, Harley-Davidson didn't reinvent itself completely but reconnected with its fundamental values—craftsmanship, freedom, and American spirit.

• Innovation without betrayal: Growth and tradition are not mutually exclusive. You can push boundaries while preserving your essence. Evolution doesn't mean abandonment; it means thoughtful, strategic transformation.

Who knows what the future holds for Harley-Davidson, but it’s sure to be an interesting road.

I’m rooting for them. Live to ride, ride to live.

What I read this week…

This, rather nuts breakdown of marketing in Minor League Baseball by in his publication “Ballsy Branding”.

Marketing promotions include one team inviting international fans to compete agaisnt homegrown, American fans. The prize? Funding citizenship applications…

‘merica.

Ballsy Branding

Minor Leagues, Major Promotions: The Wild World of MiLB Marketing

“Is baseball boring…

Read more

a year ago · 6 likes · 3 comments · Angus Merry

What I watched this week…

Because I wanted to depress myself.

Thanks for reading, see you next week. ✌🏻❤️

People we might never have heard of, but who have written, said or taught things that will far outlive themselves. 

People who have (at least once) said something that I’ve been compelled to note down and to come back to time and again.

People who you know exude excellence. 

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John Wooden was a legendary basketball coach whose achievements in college basketball are unlikely to ever be matched.

In his 12 years coaching UCLA, the team won ten NCAA championships, including seven straight titles between 1967 and 1973. Ten total titles remain a record, and no team has won more than four consecutive titles since.

In college Basketball, Wooden typically only had his players for a few seasons. While he had infrastructure around him, you don’t win 10 championships out of 12 without being a truly remarkable coach.

Before he arrived, UCLA had won 2 championships in the past 18 seasons.

Beyond just being a spectacularly good coach, Wooden exuded excellence. 

Just type in “John Wooden quotes” into Google, and you’ll get a sense of the kind of man he was, and you might begin to see why he and his teams were so successful.

Here are a couple of my favourites of those quotes:

Discipline yourself, then others won’t need to.

Do not let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do.

But my absolute favourite is his definition of success. (I made my own attempt at defining success back in TR30).

Success is peace of mind which is a direct result of the self-satisfaction in knowing you did your best to become the best you are capable of becoming.

Just beautiful.

Wooden became renowned for his short, simple, inspirational messages to his players.

Speaking of his players, they truly loved him, including all-time great Kareem Abdul-Jabar and Hall of Famer Bill Walton, who said, "He was the most influential person in my life, outside of my parents. His teachings made me a better player, but more importantly, a better person."

He was also a man of incredible integrity. Before joining UCLA, he was touted for Minnesota's head coach position. It was his and his wife's strong desire to be in the Midwest, but bad weather prevented him from receiving Minnesota's calls. Thinking they had lost interest, he instead accepted the offer from UCLA. Almost immediately after he accepted, Minnesota contacted Wooden to offer him his preferred job. Still, he declined, having already given his word to UCLA. 

There are several artefacts that Wooden left behind that would be more than worthy of a Tuesday’s Rule feature. The “Pyramid of Success” is perhaps the most well-known, and was the focus of one of his published books.

His “Seven-Point Creed” is another which holds deep-rooted wisdom.

But, it is his “Eight Laws of Learning” that I first came across, and that we’re focusing on.

Wooden taught his players how to win. So his laws of learning are certainly worth knowing.

About them, he said: The goal is to create a correct habit that can be produced instinctively under great pressure. To make sure this goal is achieved, I created eight laws of learning.

Here are the Eight laws, from the perspective of us, the learners.

1.        Explanation

The first step of learning is for the concept to be explained to us. We hear.

2.        Demonstration

Next, we see the concept in action. We watch.

3.        Initiation

Now it’s our turn. We make our first attempt at replicating what we have just seen and heard. We try.

4.        Repetition

We do it again. We repeat.

5.        Repetition

And again.

6.        Repetition

We do it again.

7.        Repetition

And again.

Before finally….

8.        Repetition

We do it again.

Until we exude excellence.

There's nothing fancy or complicated about this idea. It sounds boring. It is boring.

But that's what made Wooden and his teams extraordinary. He understood that excellence isn't built on moments of inspiration – it's built on countless hours of repetition. It's about showing up, putting in the work, and doing it again.

And again.

And again.

Until you can perform "instinctively under great pressure."

This philosophy helped him transform college players into champions. It helped him build not just great basketball players, but as Bill Walton noted, better people.

Perhaps most importantly, it gave his players that opportunity to tap into that definition of success: the peace of mind that comes from knowing you've done everything possible to become your best self.

There are no shortcuts or "hacks" to excellence. It isn’t easy, but it is simple.

Wooden's Eight Laws remind us of an eternal truth: mastery comes through patient, deliberate practice. It's not glamorous. It's not exciting. But it works. And that's why his wisdom, like his legacy, endures.

Thank you for reading, see you next week. ✌🏻❤️

In week one, we spoke about setting deadlines. Last week, passion and Ikigai… this week…

Well, I couldn’t decide.

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There is a lot of bad advice or perceived common wisdom out there. Going for just three didn’t feel possible. Actually, it didn’t feel like enough fun.

Focusing on bad advice also felt too narrow. Some things came to mind that didn’t feel like “advice” per se, more as generally perceived or commonly accepted wisdom that deserves to be pointed out.

So with that being said, I’m delighted to share my ANTI-WISDOM, all-time top 5!

(Btw, obviously, finding your passion is #1, but, we’ve already covered that one.)

Let’s get into it…

5. Money Doesn’t Buy Happiness

One of my favourite quotes is from Coco Chanel.

The best things in life are free. The second best things are very, very expensive.

Money might not buy complete happiness, and if you can’t be happy with a coffee, you won’t be happy with a yacht. But I’m happy with a coffee, and I’d be even happier with a yacht.

4. Good Things Come To Those Who Wait

I actually don’t even know what this advice or wisdom applies to? I just remember my mum saying this to me when I was being an impatient and annoying little shit.

Good things don’t come to those who wait. Good things come to those who go and get them. Respectfully.

3. Live Each Day As If It Were Your Last

We’re getting into the good ones now.

If you told me that tomorrow was my last day on the planet, I would probably not go to sleep tonight, tell everyone how I really felt, and probably not brush my teeth.

How is that good for anyone?

2. Shoot For The Moon, Even If You Miss, You’ll Land In The Stars

First of all, let’s acknowledge that the stars are much, much further away than the moon, so missing the moon would leave you nowhere near any stars either. 

But even ignoring that, sometimes setting ultra-high goals without realistic steps leaves you stressed and questioning your abilities.

Finally…

1. Just Be Yourself

Unless you’re at home with the curtains drawn, just don’t.

What I watched this week…

I wonder if we will see anything this measured and gracious in the coming days and weeks…

Thanks for reading, see you next week ✌🏻❤️

One of the best books I’ve read this year is “How to Make a Few Billion Dollars” by Brad Jacobs. Despite the title, it’s remarkably humble and accessible. Brad writes with a friendly, approachable tone, and the book doesn't feel like it’s aimed at those solely focusing on extreme wealth.

After starting with “rearranging your brain” (in Brad’s case, through CBT), the book evolves into an easy-to-follow guide to succeeding in the capitalist world.

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Brad started in oil brokerage in 1979, but his big breakthrough came in the 90s, consolidating rural trash hauling, building United Waste and flipping it to Waste Management in 1997 for $1.9 billion. He then built United Rentals into the world's largest heavy equipment rental company. In total, he’s started seven companies, and taken each of them to at least billion-dollar enterprises.

About his time at United Waste, Brad writes:

The book has 250 pages of actionable, logical (sometimes lofty) advice. But let’s pull out one idea that doesn’t appear.

One of the most common pieces of advice given to people who are unsure about their career goals is to find or follow their passion.

The Problem With Passion

If Brad had ‘followed his passion,’ would he have chosen trash hauling, heavy equipment or shareholder returns?

Unlikely.

Is he passionate about these things now? Undoubtedly.

Being told to follow your passion isn’t necessarily bad advice, assuming you have one and you happen to be exceptionally good at whatever it is.

Being told to find your passion is particularly terrible advice. The wording implies that it’s something lying around, a shiny coin waiting for you to pick it up. Or that all you need to do is look harder, and it will miraculously present itself to you. 

I am far from the first (or the most eloquent) person to have written about why passion is a foundation for such terrible advice. Here is TR hall of famer Scott Galloway, from his book ‘Algebra of Wealth’:

For the vast majority of us, passion isn’t something we find. It is something we need to work to build.

The world's most successful divorce lawyer likely didn't start with a passion for divorce. But to get to their position, thousands of hours of work have led them to become passionate about what is presumably generating a rather tidy income and life for their family. 

Ikigai

One, more specific alternative to “finding your passion” is the Japanese concept of Ikagai.

Ikigai claims that your true purpose combines what you love, what the world needs, what you’re good at, and what you can be paid for.

Sounds incredibly appealing. Who wouldn’t want that?

Its logical and simple appeal makes this a popular idea and something that people want to learn more about. The book on the topic is hugely popular, an international bestseller with multiple millions of copies sold worldwide. Here is the summary of the book, taken from Amazon:

I am one of the millions who read the book.

Spoiler alert - I didn’t find my singular Ikagai.

One of the main success stories in the book is a Japanese comic book artist. This is clearly an incredibly relevant career path for us all to learn from and aspire to.

I’m being harsh.

But just like Scott G. said about passion, this isn't relevant or actionable for the majority of young people, and the language around "finding it" simply covers up the immense amount of work and luck that any successful career in a popular field requires which we discussed above.

But my biggest problem with Ikagai is that it's very close to being useful. It just needs one tweak. 

Ikagai falls down by trying to force you down the path of a singular pursuit. Read the summary again. It's all about trying to find the one thing you are supposed to, the one thing you must find to make yourself truly happy. 

Real fulfilment is multifaceted. The trouble with Ikigai is that it promises a kind of life-changing clarity.

Most of us aren’t going to discover one singular, transcendent "purpose" by introspecting over what we love, need, or are good at. Life is complex, and so are we.

We might be passionate about something (a combination of what we love and are good at according to the concept), but trying to force it into the other categories may be impossible. I’m not sure the world needs more book reviews, life hacks or advice critiques, but here we are. 

The Portfolio of Purpose

Maybe, instead of searching for a singular purpose, we should focus on building a "portfolio of purpose" — a mix of activities that collectively adds up to fulfilment.

The portfolio of purpose is my alternative, my enhancement to Ikigai.

The individual components are essential. Having these in your life leads to improved fulfilment and, ultimately, happiness. But if they come from four different avenues—hobbies or projects alongside your job— that's absolutely fine. 

The beauty of a purpose portfolio is that it doesn't require you to aggressively shoehorn your interests, skills, and passions into a predefined framework. Instead, you can thoughtfully curate a collection of activities that complement each other and collectively add up to a fulfilling existence.

Perhaps your core career isn't your singular "passion", but by pairing it with intentional time with family and friends, further education, or projects you're excited about, you can still find joy and meaning from the collective. Focusing on this collective is often more logical and practical than trying to make a sweeping, knee-jerk change to a career.

Your portfolio might include:

• Your primary career path

• A side project or creative outlet that you're invested in

• Volunteer work or community involvement that allows you to give back

• Hobbies or physical activities that bring you joy and rejuvenation

I imagine this is why many people write. Even if you love your job, you may not get everything you need out of it. Rather than throwing your career away, writing on weekends is one way to add diversity and build your purpose portfolio.

Over time, the best case scenario is that you have enough success and joy from your primary career path that it becomes your passion and you don’t need side hustles. But, in the interim, a portfolio approach can keep you motivated holistically.

I spent a good while worrying that I wasn't finding fulfilment and blamed it on not having a passion or knowing what my singular Ikigai was. The reality was this was just a distraction from the work I needed to do to develop, build, and put the pieces of a fulfilling life together step-by-step, rather than hoping I'd find it the next time I looked behind the sofa.

What I watched this week

I introduced him above, but I’d imagine there’s a decent chance you haven’t heard of Brad Jacobs.

If you are interested in business, I would wholeheartedly recommend getting to know him, his energy and his wisdom. Here is a great place to start:

What I read this week

A lot about GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic. The Economist ran a huge feature and several articles on the potentially world-changing drugs this week. Here was my favourite, about the psychology of body image and how Ozempic may change it.

I have mixed feelings about the drugs - those feelings aren’t relevant for now - but for sure it is going to be fascinating to watch this play out over the coming years.

Thank you for reading, see you next week ✌🏻❤️

I wrote last week about how much information there is out there. It shouldn't be surprising, therefore, that some of the advice circling on platforms like Substack is going to be rubbish.

For the next three weeks, I will be writing about advice or shared wisdom that's just a bit naff. Advice which might sound solid and reasonable, but doesn't hold up when you look at actual examples and situations. 

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This week I saw a viral note that made me screw my face up. It said:

Goal without deadline = Fantasy

The subtext here is that having goals without a timeframe to achieve them means that you could end up wasting years of your life on the wrong pursuit. It could all be for nothing. 

I'm all for setting deadlines and using timeframes and checkpoints to make sure you are making progress and if not, questioning whether it is wiser to pivot away.

But it also got me thinking. Who, or what, might we never have heard of if everyone had this mindset?

It turns out quite a lot. 

I can (and will) argue that if everyone had this mindset, we would never have read Harry Potter books, seen Samuel L. Jackson act, or used a Dyson vacuum cleaner. Women may still not be voting, we may not have lightbulbs in our homes, and we would never have eaten a bargain bucket from KFC. 

These inventions, achievements and stories involve huge amounts of patience, determination and commitment. If Samuel L. Jackson had said, "It's my goal to become an actor, but I'm going to set a deadline for my 40th birthday" then we would never have seen Pulp Fiction or found out why there were so many goddamn snakes on that goddamn plane. Jackson had been acting for years in smaller roles. He struggled with personal issues until he landed his iconic role in Pulp Fiction in 1994, well into his forties.

Anyone who has tried the proprietary blend of KFC's 11 herbs and spices will know that this recipe and this chicken were destined to always be a part of the fast food zeitgeist. 

Colonel Sanders (who I didn't know was a real person until researching this post and whose bow tie I thought was his tiny body) could have set a deadline of a week to get people to taste his recipe and still succeeded in convincing people to help him set up a chain of restaurants. Right?

Wrong.

Colonel Harland Sanders was 65 years old when he started pitching his now iconic fried chicken recipe to potential investors and franchisees after his restaurant was forced to close after a highway was rerouted through its original site. 

Rather than seeing immediate success, Sanders spent years driving around the country, living out of his car, and visiting restaurants and investors to convince them to take on his recipe. One source (yes, ok, ChatGPT) suggests that he faced 1,009 rejections before someone finally agreed to take on his recipe.

1,009.

Can you imagine if, after 900 rejections, he'd said to himself, "Right, I'll get to 1,000, but once I get there, I'm done. That's my deadline, and when I get there, I'll stop. Without that deadline, this is just a fantasy."

Good things take time. The best creations are a result of iteration and resilience. 

When Thomas Edison was asked about repeated failures, he famously said, “I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.”

Great things take resilience, perseverance and patience.

Set deadlines for your teams, not for your dreams. In for a penny, in for a pound.

What I read this week

My fellow SubStacker has been on a tear recently with his page “Getting Better”. His simple-to-follow, incisive weekly posts have led to subscriber growth that I’m not jealous of, at all.

His latest is a breakdown of the GOAT podcast guest Naval Ravikant and his appearance on Joe Rogan. Check it out here!

What I watched this week

Like, a thousand times.

Thank you for reading, see you next week ✌🏻❤️

There’s more information in the world today than ever before.

Tomorrow there will be even more than today.

The day after that…you get it.

Here are some numbers to emphasise the point:

• It would take you 82 years to watch everything uploaded to YouTube today

• 6,000 tweets are sent every second

• In the time it will take you to read this bullet point, 16 million emails will be sent

• The amount of data stored worldwide is around 97 zettabytes. (A zettabyte is a billion terabytes)

All of this information is created to be consumed by someone. A lot of it is created to be consumed by you.

Let’s term consumed information as “knowledge.” That is a lot of knowledge and potential knowledge out there. 

This information availability can be overwhelming. It’s natural to wonder how you’re meant to keep up with such an immense amount of information and potential knowledge. Especially when algorithms have worked out how to feed an endless cascade of information targeted directly to you based on your personal interests.

Plenty of solutions to this have been written about.

One of my favourites is from Oliver Burkeman. His newest book, Meditations for Mortals, has a short chapter dedicated to “too much information.” In it, he shares advice for navigating a world of infinite information::

Treat your to-read pile like a river, not a bucket. That is to say: think of your backlog not as a container that gradually fills up, and that it’s your job to empty, but as a stream that flows past you, from which you get to pick a few choice items, here and there, without feeling guilty for letting all the others float by.

That’s good advice and an even better metaphor.

But it doesn’t help us determine what information - or potential knowledge - to pick out of the river. How do we make sense of it all with so much information flowing past us? 

What should we focus on, and what should we let float by?

I have an idea.

What does the vast majority of information produced today have in common?

Low-quality bait produced only to generate clicks, attention and advertising revenue?

Close.

Expiring vs Permanent Knowledge

Much of the information we are bombarded with is expiring information. It is content that is relevant for a week, a day, even just a few moments.

Think of the latest viral meme or breaking news headline. While these pieces of information may feel important, they are quickly replaced by something else.

Consumption and processing of expiring information generates expiring knowledge.

Expiring information and knowledge has a finite shelf-life. How much of what you read will you care about or even remember in a year? A month? Tomorrow? The answer is likely, barely any.

The news and media cycle is dominated by expiring information.

He said she said. Even if we're talking about the US presidential candidates, most of this will be irrelevant in a few days. 

Even 'high-quality' media specialises in expiring information. This week's edition of The Economist features stories on Donald Trump, Oil Prices, the Chagos Islands, and Hurricane Milton.

These are all big news stories and important topics. But understanding everything you can about these things would still result in expiring knowledge.

The opposite of expiring knowledge is permanent knowledge.

This type of knowledge remains valid and relevant indefinitely.

Whether you're 18 or 80, developing emotional intelligence, learning how to look after your heart, understanding the power of compound interest, or learning lessons from historical events can be powerful and relevant in perpetuity.

Other examples of permanent knowledge could include understanding human psychology, learning first aid or a unique party trick.

My advice is to optimise for permanent information and permanent knowledge.

That is not to say that there is no room for expiring knowledge. In fact it is quite the opposite.

In general, the majority of knowledge that will be most useful is expiring knowledge.

At work, we need to hit next quarter's numbers, so we need to dive into up-to-date information that will be irrelevant next quarter. At home, we need to keep on top of the latest family happenings. In social settings, we find common ground through yesterday's football, even though there is another game in a few days.

These are moments where expiring knowledge matters. Picking choice items from the stream of expiring information keeps us relevant and personable.

But skimming fewer tweets and spending more time reading timeless books is one way to optimise the information you consume and the knowledge you build in the long run. 

When seeking information, generating a bias toward permanent knowledge will help you develop frameworks and filters for your life. It will also give you topics of interesting conversation that could be applied in a broader range of settings.

Permanent Conversations

We can apply this lens to conversations, too.

How many conversations do we have that are expiring knowledge conversations?

How many conversations will we have this week that we will remember in a year? A month? Tomorrow? The answer is likely, barely any.

Not every conversation can be existential or profound. But again, optimising for conversations about permanent topics rather than expiring ones is a bias I'm seeking to generate where I can. 

Conclusion & The LAST test

In a world of ever more information and opinion, we risk drowning the timeless in an ocean of noise.

Not all noise is bad, but if you are faced with the choice, seek more permanent knowledge.

How do we determine what information is permanent?

Try using the LAST test:

• Longevity - will this information still be relevant in 10 years?

• Applicability - can this knowledge be applied across different situations?

• Significance - does this information include fundamental principles or concepts?

• Timeliness - has this knowledge remained true throughout history?

This framework will help you determine whether information is expiring or permanent.

Breaking news about Trump’s latest rally appearance? Possibly none of these things.

A thoughtful Substack post on how to optimise your information consumption for the long run? Passes the LAST test with flying colours.

Or, you could simply ask yourself when reading, “Will I care about this in a year’s time?”

Obviously, as you are reading this, the answer is yes.

Optimise for more of that.

Here is some expiring information I consumed this week…

What I watched this week

This weekend, I signed up to my first Ironman. I’m sure I’ll have lots to say about this over the next year or so, but here was the video that made me hit the button. Look at that atmosphere! I’m now studying everything has ever written.

What I read this week

I enjoyed this post by fellow Substacker ‘Why I Am So Happy”

A nice use of the Don Draper quote - “what is happiness? It’s the moment before you need more happiness.” I was ‘happy’ to see that I share many of Jeff’s beliefs, while learning a few new nuggets that I’m excited to try.

Thanks for reading, see you next week ✌🏻❤️

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Season 2 of the investigative journalism podcast Serial told the story of Bowe Berghdal, an American an American Army soldier who was held captive for five years by the Taliban before eventually being charged with desertion.

The story of his capture, release and subsequent trial is thrilling to listen to but, the series has always stuck in my mind because of the images of being held captive by a foreign enemy for that length of time and the helplessness that must have been felt.

James Stockdale

Perhaps the most “famous” story of a prisoner who was captured and held hostage is that of James Stockdale, a US Naval Officer whose plane was shot down over Northern Vietnam in 1965.

After his plane was shot down, he ejected from his aircraft and fell into a small village, where he landed and broke his back. He was quickly surrounded and taken to the infamous ‘Hanoi Hilton’, where he was held for seven and a half years.

After an unfathomably difficult, unimaginably long period of imprisonment, Stockdale and his fellow Prisoners of War (PoWs) were released as part of the deal that ended the Vietnam War.

In certain circles, Stockdale’s story has been immortalised through the concept of the Stockdale Paradox, which was popularised in Jim Collins’ book, ‘Good to Great’.

As the highest-ranking officer in the prison, Stockdale took it upon himself to look out for his compatriots, attempting to maintain morale and discipline. This meant he observed many behaviours, constitutions and personalities. He noticed what worked and what didn’t.

Stockdale observed two types of prisoners. The ‘optimists’ and the ‘realists’.

Some prisoners were overly optimistic about their situation. They were sure it was only a matter of time before the US Military machine would come to their rescue, and they would be home by Christmas.

When Christmas came and went, so did their hope. When expectations were repeatedly crushed, they fell into despair. In a later interview, Stockdale was asked, “Who didn’t make it out?”

“Oh, that’s easy”, he said. “The optimists.”

The realists, on the other hand, were the ones who managed to hold firm, particularly those who managed realism while maintaining a long-term belief.

The Stockdale Paradox

This balance of realism and optimism has been termed the Stockdale Paradox.

According to the paradox, Stockdale held on to two seemingly contradictory beliefs. It was the ability to hold on to these two beliefs simultaneously that enabled Stockdale and others to endure such tortuous conditions for seven years.

1. Realism in the face of facts

2. Unwavering faith in eventual success

Stockdale believed in facing the harsh reality of his situation. It was no use hiding behind false ideas or unsupported hope that something or someone would come to his rescue.

Torture, abuse, solitary confinement. The situation was grim, but pretending otherwise wouldn’t change that.

At the same time, Stockdale maintained a firm belief that he and the US military effort would prevail in the end. Without this, what would be the point of suffering and fighting on?

Jim Collins’ book ‘Good to Great’ - where the Stockdale Paradox was first popularised - is not about surviving as a PoW. In fact, from Collins’ own summary, “this book addresses a single question, can a good company become a great company?”

If this idea can be applied to companies going through a rough patch, it can be useful for individuals too. I hope that none of us ever have to face being held captive, but I know for sure that each of us will face difficult times. 

Productive changes can occur when you confront brutal facts.

Yes, this is shit. Yes, it hurts. Yes, I’m embarrassed.

Pretending otherwise or clinging on with blind faith that someone will come along and save you is not going to help.

Hope is not a strategy

Career setback? Denying the situation won’t help. Acknowledge the struggle and trust in your ability to land something better.

Business challenges? Business bleeding cash? Face the facts, cut costs, pivot - keep faith that you will prevail in the long run.

Health issues? Picked up an injury? Accept the reality of what lies ahead, make the necessary changes and know that you will recover over time.

I’ve always been confident that things will work out in the end, but avoiding brutal facts is something I’ve been pretty good at in the past. It’s the easy option, but it’s how issues build up. Being optimistic without focusing on the reality is a recipe for long-term frustration and disappointment.

“This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

I think I can manage this when facing a rough few weeks at work.

Still not sure I’d last more than a few minutes as a PoW.

What I read this week

I’ve spent a lot of time recently wondering when the world would pivot ‘back’ to nuclear energy (which has perhaps the world’s biggest branding problem.)

It seems as though big tech is about to lead the charge, with some of the largest companies in the world turning to nuclear to support their ever increasing energy demands.

https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/5/24261405/google-microsoft-amazon-tech-data-center-nuclear-energy

What I watched this week

As a boy growing up in the 2000’s, I was obsessed with WWE Wrestling, as were most of my friends.

It wasn’t just the action in the ring that we were in love with, it was the characters and the soap opera like plots that we were hooked on. They seemed to be targeted at teenagers like me.

One of the main protagonists was Mr. McMahon, an ‘exaggerated’ persona of WWE’s real life founder and CEO, Vince McMahon.

Netflix have recently released a 5-part documentary series about Mr. McMahon (the man and the character) and I binged it in almost no time. For someone like me who loved WWE it was a chance to revisit my youth.

At the same time, it does paint a somewhat damning picture about the world of wrestling (and the reflection of popular culture that it was leaning in to) during the late 90’s and early 00’s.

If nothing else, it’s an entertaining - if slightly disturbing - spotlight on what was undoubtedly a huge part of many kids lives growing up.

Thanks for reading, see you next week ✌🏻❤️

Another way of terming this is the importance of being “high-agency”.

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High agency individuals reject stories given to them by other people about what they can and can’t do.

Being high agency means getting shit done. It means finding a way to get what you want, without waiting to be given it. But more than that, it means bending the world to your will.

My favourite definition sits within the question, "If you were stuck in a third-world prison and you could call one person to help bust you out, who would you call?"

That is the highest agency person you know.

Creating something that literally didn't exist before you is a pretty good example of a high agency act.

Recently, whilst on holiday, my wife asked me - where do you think the concept of a holiday came from? Who decided they needed to take a break from their own lifestyle and travel elsewhere temporarily to sample someone else’s?

Obviously, I didn’t know, but I did not expect the answer to stem from one individual.

One individual with a very recognisable name.

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The History of the Holiday

In ancient cultures (think Romans/Greeks), travel abroad was primarily for trade or military purposes. The very wealthy occasionally travelled for health (i.e. visiting a spa).

This was largely unchanged until the "Grand Tour" concept emerged in the 17th-19th Centuries. A Grand Tour was a long trip, often through several countries, taken by the upper-class youth of Europe to finalise their education.

After the industrial revolution, travel became more common. Increased wealth, leisure time, and the development of railroads and the steam engine meant that travelling was more accessible and affordable.

Thomas Cook

However, it wasn't until a Mr. Thomas Cook (born 1808) came along that the idea of a holiday really took off.

Thomas Cook is credited with being the pioneer of modern tourism. He transformed the way people travelled, making it more accessible and affordable for the general public and not just the wealthy elites.

In 1841, Mr. Cook organised the first holiday.

OK, not quite… it was a rail journey for a group of campaigners travelling to a temperance meeting in Loughborough.

He arranged for the rail company to provide a special train, charging one shilling per person for the round trip.

It started something.

Mr Cook later wrote of the journey: "And thus was struck the keynote of my excursions, and the social idea grew upon me."

Building on the success of his initial venture, Cook began organising trips to other destinations. These trips extended beyond just temperance society members and expanded to offerings for the general public. He arranged transport, meals, and accommodation, effectively creating the first package tours.

For the next 33 years, he shuttled tourists up, down and around the country.

Further Afield

He then started taking passengers across the Channel into Switzerland, Italy and France, introducing thousands of people to the Swiss Alps, the Colosseum and the joys of freshly baked croissants.

Later, he shipped travellers to Japan, India, and the USA. He even offered a 222-day world tour, which he named 'China via Egypt'.

Beyond just the trips themselves, Thomas Cook also pioneered several innovations that laid the groundwork for modern tourism. He introduced the concept of 'circular notes', which later became traveller's cheques - making it easier for people to manage money abroad. He also produced travel guides and timetables, contributing to the tourism infrastructure that still exists today.

It is important to remember that whilst Thomas Cook did not invent the idea of travelling, before him, there was no concept of a package holiday. There was no way for an individual to book a trip that included the travel, the accommodation and the activities whilst there.

Travelling abroad would have been a big deal for many people in the 1800s, so providing a way to address these fears was no mean feat.

For his early international tours, Thomas himself coordinated with various transport companies, arranged accommodations, and planned excursions. He often accompanied the tours himself, making sure that the tours ran smoothly.

They didn't always.

On one trip in the summer of 1870, he and a group were in Paris. The political situation in Europe was tense, and whilst they were there, the Franco-Prussian war broke out.

Negotiating with travel companies is a challenging thing to do even today. But doing so in a time of no internet, whilst a country descends into war, will require serious high agency action.

Of course, he manages it.

Legacy

The story of Thomas Cook reminds me of the famous one about Richard Branson and the inception of Virgin Airways.

Frustrated by a cancelled flight to the Virgin Islands, Richard charters a plane, borrows a blackboard and writes "Virgin Airways, $39 one way to the Virgin Islands" to sell seats to other stranded passengers.

The flight fills, and the rest is history.

The rest is history.

This phrase is a common one to mark the end of the beginning of a well-known story - often involving a high agency individual or group of individuals.

High agency individuals like Richard Branson and Thomas Cook write history.

Conclusion - Becoming Higher Agency

We won’t all write history, and we can't all invent airlines from scratch.

But we can all seek to be a little more high agency. Being high agency seems to be a pretty damn good barometer for whether someone is likely to be successful or not.

Sometimes, the best way to become more of something is to think abut the perils of being the opposite.

As George Mack defines - "low agency people accept the story that is given to them. They never question it. They are passive."

That doesn’t sound like something any of us would aspire to be.

Nothing that Thomas Cook did was technically challenging, complicated or anything that required any level of superhuman intelligence. As well as being a fascinating story it’s an inspiring one about high agency, and simply the act of getting shit done changing the world as we know it.

So if in doubt, what would Thomas Cook do?

What I read this week

There’s been a lot of reaction to Amazon’s decision to bring staff back to the office 5-days a week. The email CEO Andy Jassy sent to employees is worth a read.

If you read the reaction on LinkedIn, you would think that Amazon have just signed their own death warrant. Reactions like this, this and this suggest that the vast majority of the staff are upset about it, that it will backfire and will cost the company dearly.

Why enforce a return to office when you can achieve the same or more from home? A fair question perhaps.

But, I say… bravo, Amazon. I really hope they hold out and this works.

As Jassy wrote in his email, ‘keeping your culture strong is not a birthright’. He talks about the benefits for learning, collaboration and connection. What he doesn’t mention is the benefit of being in the office specifically for young people.

Being in the office creates discipline and connection for young professionals early in their career. These are two things that seem to be decaying. I can speak from experience about the negative impact that unforced remote working can have on motivation and general mental health.

I wrote about how hybrid working was a compromise solution that works for no one back in January 2022. “Rather than the best of both worlds, if done poorly it could end up being the worst of both worlds..”

I’m not sure the Amazon decision will stick, or pave the way for other companies to follow suit. But I do agree that culture isn’t a birth right, and believe that companies that engage staff in a way that makes people want to be in the office, spending time with other colleagues, will be the ones that win in the long run.

Thanks for reading, see you next week ✌🏻❤️

Some situations are so challenging, so daunting, they appear to have no solution. There seems to be no way through, round or over, no matter which angle.

There is no answer.

Maybe you give up, move on or pass on the problem.

Maybe that’s OK.

Or maybe you haven’t tried hard enough.

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Today’s rule comes from an answer to a question that any listener of Tim Ferriss will be familiar with.

If you could have a giant billboard anywhere with anything on it, what would it say and why?

Marie Forleo is an author, entrepreneur and award-winning show host. She was described by Oprah Winfrey as “a thought-leader for the new generation”.

Here is her answer:

My billboard would say ‘Everything is figure-out-able.’ I learned this as a kid from my mum, and it’s fuelled every aspect of my career and life. It still does to this day.

The message is simple. No matter what challenge or obstacle you face, whether it’s personal, professional, or global, there’s a path ahead. It’s all figure-out-able. You’ll find a way or make a way, if you’re willing to be relentless, stay nimble, and keep taking action.

It’s especially useful to remember when things go wrong, because rather than wasting time or energy on the problem, you shift immediately to brainstorming solutions. I honestly believe it’s one of the most practical and powerful beliefs you can adopt.

Everything is figure-out-able.

It’s something you might want to write on a post-it-note and stick it where you can always see it, but this isn’t a motivational catchphrase; it’s an approach to living.

It gives you permission to fail and go again, to pause and recalibrate, but only to stop trying if that’s truly the right answer, supported by your genuine intention.

It reminds us that we are resourceful, capable, and adaptive—qualities that can unlock previously closed doors.

In the moments where it feels impossible, "everything is figure-out-able" doesn’t promise ease, but it promises possibility.

When you embrace this idea, challenges transform from roadblocks into puzzles, and the real question becomes: how do you want to solve it?

It’s the mindset of the successful. The achievers and the doers.

In the end, there's always an answer— it’s just waiting for you to work it out.

What I read this week

I finally got round to reading “Endurance”, (by Alfred Lansing) which details the epic journey Ernest Shackleton and his team of 27 men took to Antartica in 1914.

The book details their two-year ordeal, focused on survival. It follows their ship getting stranded and eventually crushed by ice floes in the Weddell Sea, leaving the men stranded on the pack ice, with minimal supplies.

I was hooked almost immediately, and experienced something I don’t think I’ve experienced reading any other book.

Typically, I visualise the characters and scenes depicted in my mind. (Is that normal?)

In ‘Endurance’ the scenery and conditions that the men experienced were so alien, I simply could not visualise.

“In all the world there is no desolation more complete than the polar night. It is a return to the Ice Age— no warmth, no life, no movement. Only those who have experienced it can fully appreciate what it means to be without the sun day after day and week after week. Few men unaccustomed to it can fight off its effects altogether, and it has driven some men mad.”

What I watched this week

Whatever you think of the All-In podcast, they certainly have created a huge platform and have some brilliantly entertaining and informative conversations.

This past week they held their annual summit, and videos of many of the conversations are already available on YouTube.

My favourite is this conversation with Uber founder, Travis Kalinick.

The story of Uber’s early years is wild and the video is worth a watch just for Travis’ recollections of that.

Thanks for reading, see you next week. ✌🏻❤️

Every individual who has taken on the responsibility has faced unique challenges.

Some navigated them more effectively than others, depending on who you ask. But no matter your perspective, one thing is easy to agree on: being president is, for most of us, an unimaginably demanding position.

Every president is different, but they have a few things in common. We’re exploring one of those commonalities today.

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Lyndon Johnson was thrust into the presidency in 1963 after the assignation of sitting president John F Kennedy.

Johnson did what other "accidental" presidents had done under similar circumstances: promising to continue unchanged the policies of his predecessor. Johnson also retained the Kennedy staff and, in general, the system.

The 1960’s were a tumultuous period in American foreign affairs. The Cold War threatened to bubble over, and Johnson became totally absorbed in a foreign war after the decision to send American troops to Vietnam in 1965.

As the Vietnam conflict escalated, Johnson's personal burden grew. His circle of advisers shrank as he immersed himself into the details of the war. He became less tolerant of dissent. Despite this, he continued to seek counsel from a small group of trusted friends, often engaging in lengthy off-the-record conversations with them.

Early in 1965, Johnson instituted a "Tuesday lunch," which for the next four years represented the focal point of foreign policymaking. The initial grouping of Dean Rusk, Robert McNamara, and McGeorge Bundy gradually expanded to include the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Earle Wheeler, CIA Director Richard Helms, and Johnson's press secretary, first Bill Moyers, later George Christian. Johnson kept the proceedings informal to encourage give-and-take, but eventually Deputy Press Secretary Tom Johnson was added to keep a record of major points. 1

The Tuesday lunch, a key element in Johnson's decision-making process, provided the president with a spectrum of views on significant policy issues. While it was not designed to be a decision-making body, Johnson used it as a platform for gathering information and opinions. He would sometimes announce decisions at the Tuesday lunch, but more often, he would take the information and opinions back to his private quarters, where he would compare them with intelligence obtained from his readings.

The lunches helped Johnson cut through bureaucracy with frank, off-the-record conversations.

JFK himself leant on a similar arrangement. The Irish Mafia was a close-knit group of friends and allies who advised the president. The group included his brother Robert F. Kennedy, Dave Powers and Kenny O’Donnell, who were informal but powerful figures in his administration.

During his presidency, Kennedy dealt with the Cuban Missile Crisis and delicate moments during the Civil Rights movement. He oversaw the effort to put a man on the moon. These informal advisors were instrumental in navigating these crucial moments for America at home and abroad.

Andrew Jackson was president from 1829 to 1837. His “Kitchen Cabinet” was an informal group of influential advisors during his time in office. The Kitchen Cabinet consisted of close friends, journalists and allies, rather than official members of his official government. 

Harry Truman had the Missouri Gang, Woodrow Wilson had the Inquiry, Franklin Roosevelt the Brain Trust.

Name a president, they had an informal group of advisors they relied on.

You should have the same.

If it’s a good enough practice for sitting presidents, it’s good enough for you.

You can’t read the label from the inside of the bottle.

That’s why creating a personal board of directors can be a game-changer for personal and professional growth.

Just like a board helps steer a company, advising the executive leadership team, a personal board of directors consisting of friends and colleagues can help you make decisions, give you feedback and offer alternative perspectives.

A reliable board of personal directors can be invaluable for support and guidance when making big decisions such as career changes or facing difficult options in tricky situations. They're not there to agree with you, rather to challenge your thinking and help you see your blind spots. Mine has been massively important to me in the past few years.

These could be successful friends, teachers, mentors, ex-managers, or colleagues. They should, however (as most of the examples above were) be independent. That means your current manager or spouse might not be the best option for these particular roles, no matter how much you value their opinions. 

I have a personal board of directors of five or six people. The best thing is that not one of them knows that they're on it. These are just people whose opinions I value and who I think of or call when I need advice.

It might be relationships, money, my family, or my career. I'm crafting my board of advisors so that whatever I might need, I've got someone to call… or imagine calling.

Now I think about it, some of them don't even know I exist.

Yep, a couple of members of my personal board of directors don't even know I exist. 

Scott Galloway wouldn't know who I was if I walked up to him in the street, but through his podcasts and his writing, he's become someone who influences me and how I approach junctures. 

Your personal board of directors is precisely that. It's yours, and it's personal. It doesn't matter who's on it. What matters is that you have one, and the people on it are people you trust to give you good advice. But that's all that it is, just advice. 

Just like a board can advise a company and the Tuesday lunch advised Lyndon Johnson of their perspectives, a personal board of directors can provide that sounding board and offer different takes. 

Start assembling yours today. Think about your gaps and who you want to help fill them. Then, lean on them—literally or metaphorically.

What I watched this week

No video today, because the best thing I saw this week was a live audience with author Oliver Burkeman, at the launch of his new book ‘Meditation for Mortals’.

At some points, it felt like he was speaking directly to me. He said two specific things about his writing that I’m stealing and aiming to apply to my own going forward.

Oliver spoke about how many writers hated the word ‘actually’, but it being key in his work. He is not interested in simply giving advice, rather, getting people to ‘actually’ act on it. He also described how he endeavours to keep his writing fun. Not always easy when talking about time management, or meditations, but an important reminder for us all, no matter what we’re doing.

What I read this week

This breakdown of the economics of OnlyFans’ by Matthew Ball is wild.

Some of the craziest stats:

• In 2024, OnlyFans’ generated $6.3bn in revenue, up from $300m 5-years ago

• Over the past 5-years, OnlyFans' creators have collected over $15bn, with $5.3bn in 2023. As a comparison, total Premier League payroll was just under $5.3bn and total NBA salaries were $4.9bn in 2023.

• OnlyFans has paid its two owners $1.1bn in dividends since 2019!

• The UK government has received more in taxes from OnlyFans this year that it has from proceeds from North Sea oil

This is the future of our economy.

Thanks for reading Tuesdays Rule, see you next week! ✌🏻❤️

Maintaining and building congruous viewpoints demonstrates strength, conviction, and integrity, helps build a clear identity, fosters accountability and makes it easy for others to know where you stand.

Constantly changing your mind might bring into question your trust and reliability, make you appear fickle and risks confusing and frustrating others. It is also very inefficient.

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Nelson Mandela didn’t become arguably the most celebrated man in history by changing his mind under pressure. His story is revered because of his unwavering dedication to his cause despite everything he faced.

True, true and true… but things do change.

New information, new experiences, growth, context and exposure to different opinions can (and should) challenge even the most entrenched views.

This week’s rule comes from this quote from English Philosopher Alan Watts.

Watts called himself “a philosophical entertainer, a genuine fake and an irreducible rascal”. He has fans and critics, but this post is about this particular quote, not the man himself.

I take two main points. One is that the past should not determine the future, and reinventing yourself for the better is a noble pursuit. The second is that changing your opinion is legitimate if you’re presented with new information or context.

Strong opinions, loosely held.

Being able to change your mind can be a sign of intellectual honesty, confidence and clarity of thought. Adapting and reacting to new information and being able to rationalise what that means for your viewpoint on the world is a sign that you are an independent thinker. 

Obviously, you don’t want to change your positions every day, but balancing this against the above benefits is a sign of confidence and intellectual honesty.

It’s rare. Particularly in situations that might be considered tribal… think, politics.

Reading the news, you’d think a leader changing their mind or position was a cardinal sin. That flip-flopping, caving or capitulation were the only ways someone could ever change their position or opinion.

That’s why real examples are so interesting to look at. And why seeing someone do it in the right way should be seen as a sign of confidence and integrity.

Here are a couple of examples on either side of the political spectrum to illustrate my point.

Thomas Sowell is a renowned economist and author of 45 published books. His voice is often endorsed by free-market advocates and conservatives. He is one of the most prominent intellectuals of the 20th and 21st centuries, and his quotes are often used as arguments for small government.

But his views weren’t always conservative. As a young man, Sowell identified as a Marxist, stemming from the belief that it was a compelling critique of capitalism and the inequalities it resulted in.

Sowell’s view turned almost 180 degrees after completing an internship in the US Government labour department. His experience studying the effects of minimum wage laws changed his view on the effectiveness of government.

“I was a Marxist in my teens and twenties, but one summer working in the government was enough to make me rethink everything I’ve ever believed”

Elizabeth Warren is one of the most prominent left-wing/progressive voices in modern American politics. She was one of the front-runners in the 2020 Democratic race to run for President, with a platform centred around regulating financial markets, reforming healthcare, and a belief that the government should play a strong role in protecting people from institutional exploitation.

However, Warren initially identified as a conservative, and her early career reflected this, as did the fact that she had been a registered Republican for a portion of her adult life.

Warren's transformation was not a sudden shift, but a gradual evolution driven by experiences. Her in-depth research into bankruptcy law and middle-class economic issues and the stories she encountered were what shaped her into the progressive she is today.

From a profile in Politico leading up to her 2020 campaign:

The story of Warren’s awakening - from a true believer in free markets, to a business-bashing enforcer of fair markets; from a moderate Republican … to one of the most liberal senators in America vying to lead the Democratic Party—breaks the mold of the traditional White House contender and is key to understanding how she sees the world: with a willingness to change when presented with new data, and the anger of someone who trusted the system and felt betrayed.

Both these stories - flips in opposite directions - highlight intellectual flexibility and willingness to change positions based on new evidence and context. 

Both these individuals are incredibly strong and confident in their convictions - that much is obvious by listening to them speak. Perhaps especially strong because they have considered and been exposed to the other side.

Strength in your conviction is vital, but so is the ability to adapt. Changing your mind is not a sign of weakness; it is a sign of intellectual honesty and confidence, despite what the modern world seems to suggest.

Confirmation bias is the tendency to favour information that confirms existing beliefs and to disregard or undervalue information that challenges them. It is everywhere and incredibly difficult to overcome.

Examining new information and the beliefs that it challenges is perhaps what leads to greater clarity, and ultimately success.

At least that’s what I believe today… 🤔

Before you go, a couple of things I enjoyed this week:

What I watched this week…

I have been waiting for this and loved finally watching this documentary about Ross Edgley and his record breaking swim in the Yukon River. I wrote about Ross and his efforts in TR33 and this documentary is a must if you’re into endurance, human possibility and British wit and charm.

What I read this week…

I found this article about aging interesting (originally found in the WSJ, this is a similar article not behind a paywall). In short, a new study has determined that while we age gradually, there seems to be a burst of aging in your mid 40’s and early 60’s. I think there are parallels with learning and this idea has gone on to the list of future topics.

Thanks for reading Tuesday’s Rule, see you next week! ✌🏻❤️

You’re reading one of my pursuits right now—my goal to write every week for two years is now 35 weeks strong.

But this week, I came across a framing that instantly changed my perspective on goal setting.

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Goals have obvious value in both personal and professional contexts, offering direction, motivation, and a sense of purpose. They’ve helped me achieve things in the past couple of years that I probably wouldn’t have otherwise.

But this new framing instantly made me change my perspective and opened my eyes to a new approach to pursuits and challenges.

There is a downside to goals, and paradoxically, that downside often rears its head after the successful completion of one. After achieving a goal, it might be natural to lapse, rendering the activity a one-off. 

For example, if I decided to run a marathon this year, there is a very real chance that after the marathon, I would celebrate my achievement by reverting back to my ways before training. I might all but hang up my running trainers, leaving behind all of the exercise and good habits that I instituted before I set out to achieve the goal. 

Perhaps goals aren’t the best approach. The alternative is standards, which could be more powerful.

The idea came from Prof G’s recent conversation with Andrew Huberman (possibly my #1 podcast recommendation so far this year) and is borrowed from the Military community. It was parcelled in a conversation about fitness regimes.

When you have goals, it’s very easy to reach a goal and then stop. But when you have a standard, you’re always staying above that line and have the opportunity to exceed it whilst never falling below it. It sets an alarm on the low end, that’s also very high… I love this concept, because you have a standard for yourself, a standard behaviour, a standard of fitness that translates to a certain amount of activity so that you are never unable to meet that standard.

I love this idea and could instantly see where it might have been more powerful for me to set standards for myself rather than one-off goals. 

Let’s clarify the definition of standards as benchmarks that are not to be fallen below. They are the minimum level of achievement and attainment you can reach at any given time. In some cases, standards are a reframing of goals; in others, they are a way of obtaining the benefits of reaching a goal in a more sustainable manner.

For example:

Instead of my goal of writing every week for two years, my standard is now that I am a writer who publishes every Tuesday.

Instead of my goal of running a marathon in 2024, my standard becomes that I am someone who is always able to go out and run for three hours. (I could then build from here if I wanted to take on a specific event.)

Instead of a goal of saving £10,000 in a year, my standard is that I save £1,000 every month without fail.

Not only do these standards mean that I am achieving the outputs and feeling the benefits that I would if I were achieving these goals, but I am doing so in a way that lasts, a way that should avoid that lapse I might be likely to feel once the goal has been ticked off.

More than that, adhering to these standards that I set myself changes my psychology and the makeup of who I am. Having a standard for myself and the type of person I am means there should be no ambiguity or a self-initiated endpoint. Considering the goals I’m setting are there to improve my health, fitness, or general standing, why wouldn’t I want these to be taken on in a way that institutes lasting change?

What goals are you working towards that you might be better served by replacing with standards?

See you next week. Thank you for reading. ✌🏻❤️

Pension funds, specifically ‘target date’ pension funds might not seem like a particularly interesting topic. However, since revisiting some of mine in the past week, I’ve found some insight in them that I felt were worth exploring. I’ll let you be the judge of whether I’m right…

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A target date investment fund is a long-term financial investment account that is automatically adjusted over the years as the investor approaches a specific milestone such as retirement.

A fund is managed using this predetermined time horizon to inform investment strategy. This strategy typically relies on riskier investments in the early years, gradually moving toward ‘safer’ investments in later years.

These funds generally include the target date in the fund name. For example, a Target Retirement 2050 Fund is designed to reach the investor's objective and be drawn down in 2050.

The above diagram shows an example fund, and the change in the mix of investments as the target date approaches. Where the target date is still many years out, the allocation to "riskier" investments is higher. As the target date nears, this adjusts to a smaller allocation to these riskier investments and more to bonds and cash (safer).

The intention is to generate gains while the investor has plenty of time to recover from short-term losses. In later years, the investments lean towards more conservative options to consolidate gains and avoid untimely losses. Losing 20% of your pension because of a stock-market crash is going to hurt a lot more a month before you retire than it is when you're in your thirties.

That’s the finance lesson over. What is it that we might be able to take from these things and apply to other aspects of life?

Long-term planning is one, but that’s obvious. See rule #15 for my advice on making long-term thinking a little bit easier.

Instead, today I’m focusing on Risk, Diversification and Experts.

Risk

The approach of target date funds to relative risk based on your life period is obvious. They advocate taking risks earlier in life and a safer approach when the target date is approaching. As mentioned, this is so an investor can ride the growth and any potential declines in risky assets in the period where they are still accumulating.

This made me think about the broader concept of risk-taking. Taking risk is neither inherently good nor bad, and whether a risk is a good one or a bad one entirely depends on its nature and circumstance. Therefore, "take more risk" is bad advice in and of itself, regardless of your age.

However, most would advocate a bias toward risk in early years. People in their 20s, in particular, should be encouraged to have a very open relationship to risk, where the definition is to try different things and get out of comfort zones. A risk might be moving abroad, changing jobs, or putting yourself out there, even if it means coming up against a fear of failure. 

Taking these risks in early life means exposure to significant potential upside and excitement, safe in the knowledge that even if they go wrong, you have time to recover and take a different path, hopefully with some sort of safety net in place.

In later life, the obvious conclusion from how a pension fund is structured might be that it is time to take fewer risks and start playing it safer. I take something slightly different. 

It is important to reach this period in life in a position where you can still take the risks that you want to take. To do so, you want to have developed economic security, enabling the decisions to be entirely yours and not dictated by circumstance. 

If you want to retire, slow down, travel, or donate, you need to make sure you are in a position to take risks by eliminating financial risk as much as possible.

Diversification

Even in the riskiest period of a target date fund, it is extremely unlikely that a fund would put all eggs in one basket, all chips on one number. Looking at my Vanguard account, I am invested in one fund, which has my money in 9 different regions and at least 10 different indexes. There is not one individual sector that has more than 14% of my money.

I am often torn between the psychology of going all in on one endeavour versus having multiple running alongside each other. Personal diversification, if you like.

Common wisdom might tell us it’s worthwhile to be diversified in life too. Not relying too heavily on one friend or group of friends, having multiple hobbies and ideas for what you want to do in the future. But, as with pension funds, this idea is grounded in playing it safe and ensuring things don’t go horribly wrong. In my Vanguard account, if the pharmaceutical industry suddenly implodes, only 3% of my money is at risk. The diversification is designed to protect me from significant losses.

However, if the pharmaceutical industry were to boom and valuations were to double overnight, my upside would also be limited. I would be exposed to something extraordinary, but I would have a 3% increase in my portfolio to show for it. 

Diversification is critical for financial investments as it relates to protecting from ruin. This is probably also true in life, being a generalist with a wide selection of skills will likely mean you'll always have options. But it's focus and concentration that leads to extraordinary outcomes. Pick your favourite athlete, CEO or individual with a remarkable skill set. It's likely to be a sole dedication to a pursuit rather than diversification that got them there. 

Pension funds are designed to accumulate wealth over the long term and then protect it. They are not intended to seek out 100 or 1,000x outcomes. This might also be true for careers and skills. Diversification might be the way forward if you are looking for stable and safe outcomes. However, genuinely exceptional returns - although much rarer - are found through complete focus on one thing. 

Experts

Even just explaining pension funds is complex. Can you imagine needing to manage all of this yourself?

Let's imagine that there was consensus that managing your money through a target date fund was how everyone should go. Now suppose there was no automation or money managers like Vanguard or Fidelity to which you could set direct debits. Imagine, therefore, that you as an individual were responsible for researching, finding and making the investments, monitoring them for changes, making updates to your allocation and then closing them out as the target date arrived. You wouldn't do anything else!

Reliance on experts is something I’ve written about before. Firstly when I wrote about trust a while back and then last week when I spoke about Ross Edgley’s feats of endurance and the faith he puts in his team of experts. I’m going to write about it again.

During the 2016 Brexit debate, one of the lines parroted by the Leave campaign in response to Economists data showing that it might be a bad idea was, “this country has had enough of experts”.

This is still one of the most idiotic things ever said by anyone.

Without us having to think about it, experts make our lives immeasurably easier by reducing the amount we need to know. It means we don’t have to learn about how our cars work, how paracetamol is made and how financial instruments are used.

Learning what you can and not putting blind faith in corporations and individuals is important, but so is knowing when to take advice, when to put things on autopilot and when to let the expertise of others allow you to play life on easy mode.

Pension funds are an example of where letting the experts do their job and playing the system by smartly utilising what’s on offer can pay off. They are also surprisingly rich with ideas on how to think intentionally.

Thanks for reading, see you next week ❤️✌🏻

He's been described as a "British David Goggins," and while that might be a fair comparison when it comes to their feats of endurance, Ross’ personality and happy-go-lucky charm make him one-of-a-kind.

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Ross gained relative fame in 2018 when he completed 'The Great British Swim' - a 157-day, 1,792-mile swim around the perimeter of Britain. He typically swam 6 hours on and 6 hours off, fuelling himself with 15,000 calories a day. When Ross completed the swim, he said, "It's my hope that people remember the Great British Swim as an example or experiment in both mental and physical fortitude."

Before that, Ross ran a marathon pulling a car, ran 1,000km in a month while barefoot, completed 30 marathons in 30 days, a triathlon whilst carrying a tree and a rope climb of 8,848m (the height of Mt. Everest).

As well as being a physical beast, Ross is entertaining, wise, and stoic. He has written 4-books and is a brilliant podcast guest. I can't recommend listening to his latest episode with Chris Williamson enough.

In this episode, he talks through his latest feat and world record - the longest non-stop river swim ever.

Over 60 hours, Ross swam 317 miles down the River Yukon without stopping, touching land, or sleeping, all in water temperatures of around 9 degrees. Side note: I once swam in water of 9 degrees, and I still have the email certificate for the "cold water club." I lasted 15 minutes.

In the podcast, Ross discusses tactics and tips for training, preparation, overcoming pain and the desire to quit. But one point he made really stuck with me.

We’re all familiar with the idea of taking the “path of least resistance.” The path of least resistance is the easiest route to an outcome or a goal. Often, this is smart and worthwhile, but may not be consistent with doing hard things.

This isn’t necessarily what Ross advocates. Instead, one of his pearls of wisdom and tactics within the swim was to:

Find The Path of Most Assistance.

Ross mentions this idea on a couple of occasions. When describing the approach to swimming in the river, he said:

“It was my first river swim, so I was completely listening to the team. I tried to swim it as hard as I could as a swimmer, whereas what became very apparent is you need to treat it like you are a sailor, treating your body like a vessel. So I was trying to find the path of least resistance, or the path of most assistance, constantly weaving my way down the river (to make the most of the streams and currents)”.

There is no doubt that what Ross did was unimaginably difficult. But, he didn’t swim upstream. He used what he could in the river and the conditions to his advantage, making the effort as “easy” as it could be.

He also said:

“We had four boats, there was one that went up ahead to make sure there was no moose, bear or log jams and also to find the path of most assistance. There was another boat that was constantly feeding me so it was constantly by my side and then there was another one which was the mother ship, slightly larger that had a bed on it so people could sleep and then there was one that was behind making all of the hot water. And that just worked in a perfect unison.”

As you might expect in an expedition like this, Ross took advantage of an elite support team, leaving him to focus just on swimming and retaining his mental capacities, which is not the easiest thing to do when fighting sleep deprivation and trying to avoid hypothermia.

Ross “outsourced his common sense” to his team. He got to the point where he couldn’t trust his own brain or body, so was utterly reliant on the team to keep him fuelled, on track and to know if and when he was reaching the point where his mental or physical state required intervention.

There is so much that you can take from Ross’ story, his general approach and outlook that I could write for 5 weeks inspired by him. Whether it’s the idea that the human body can take far more than you might think possible, the motivation to do things that raise the bar, or how to stay positive even when you’ve soiled your wetsuit and your tongue is falling apart. But this idea of outsourcing common sense and finding help wherever you can, whatever you’re doing, resonated most.

Ross’ story can be applied to how we approach challenges, big and small. The philosophy of finding the path of most assistance is powerful - even when tackling the most demanding tasks, we don’t have to do it alone, nor should we. Leaning on others, utilising resources at our disposal and being strategic about where we use our energy can be key to achieving big things.

This is obviously not about taking the easy way out but rather finding the easiest way to do the hardest things. Ross didn't swim 317 miles by force of will alone. He harnessed the river's currents, relied on a skilled team, and preserved his mental and physical strength by focusing on what only he could do: swim. 

As he describes the journey, you might imagine the river as a metaphor. Currents will push and pull us; finding how we can use them in our favour can be a game-changer. In our own way, we all have tailwinds we can find, support crews that we should use.

‘What would Ross Edgley do’, has just been added to my vocabulary. I know that I'll never break any swimming world records. But I also know that more is possible—by pushing as hard as I can, yes, but also by finding support, using conditions to my advantage, and knowing who might help me through the toughest parts. 

Thanks for reading, see you next week. ✌🏻❤️

It's Sunday afternoon and the sun is shining. I want to be outside, maybe in the park or in a beer garden. But it’s the only time I have before Tuesday morning to sit down and write. So here I am.

This isn’t a post about motivation, or doing things you don’t want to do. It’s a post about making time your friend.

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Time is often the enemy. It’s either ticking by too quickly or too slowly. Nobody ever says, “Time is passing by just right.” Time means ageing, decay, and the ending of eras.

We never have enough time. It’s always running out. We want to turn back time and experience it all over again. We race the clock, need an extra hour in the day, and can’t believe it’s nearly the end of summer.

Ultimately, time is our overlord, in the end it will come for us all. Not having enough of it is why I’m sat at my desk when I’d rather be doing something fun in the sun.

Time is the enemy because it imposes limitations and adds tensity. It exacerbates challenges and means missed opportunities.

Now’s not a good time; time waits for no one; time is not on our side.

But that doesn’t need to be the case. And given it's an inevitability, it’s worth thinking hard about how to make time your friend.

As Shane Parrish writes in Clear Thinking… “Time is the friend of somebody who is properly positioned.”

Good things take time. Being well-positioned is one way to make time your friend. Long-term investors are the ones who win most consistently. Compound interest (the eigth wonder of the world) and the growth of investments over time can lead to significant accumulation.

If you’re in the right relationship, time is your friend. The relationship will grow stronger as you learn more about each other, learn to trust one another, and achieve things together.

Time is a factor in some of life’s most potent equations. Compounding is only possible with time. Time is also the partner to consistency, and consistency is the precursor improvement, expertise, and resilience. It’s why I’m here right now, making sure I don’t miss a week so that in a couple of years, I can look back with pride at the work that I have produced and the learnings that it brought.

10,000 hours, 10,000 reps. According to Malcolm Gladwell “10,000 hours of practice is the magic number for true expertise”. I question whether anyone can achieve expertise after 10,000 hours pratice, or whether the number is big enough such that only those who are being given sufficient greenlights to continue in their pursuit actually continue. Either way, expertise is only possible with time.

In the right conditions, time leads to growth, maturity and enrichment.

Time heals. Physically, injuries heal over time. Emotionally, after experiencing loss or trauma, time helps process emotions, allowing wounds to close and providing perspective.

Knowing that our time is finite can also be a great unlock. In 40 or 50 years, everyone whose opinion you’re worried about will be dead. Momento Mori, remember you will die, is a core stoic mantra that encourages you to remember that time is finite. This can act as a motivator to ensure you’re squeezing everything you can out of life’s lemons.

Take your time, give it time. Time is the best teacher.

Our situations are all unique. But I promise you, it’s worthwhile considering the question: How can I make time, my friend?

Let’s get it this week. See you next Tuesday. ✌🏻❤️